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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

-

计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-

阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长(%)
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长(%)
-
选我
8年增长(%)
-
选我
10年增长(%)
-
选我
上市以来增长(%)
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算,我也不拦你,你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧,如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值,他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值,要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股,最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右,正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业,说十年后企业是什么样子,其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守,30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF(除非使用年份少)

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以,但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观,我们锁死了上限(上限3%)
  2. 默认是0,我们也建议使用0,哪有什么永远?都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利,其它值填零,只填基数。然后看未来值,要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的,只填期数和折现率,其它填零然后看现值,要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长,才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-

永续价值

-

估值

-

证券代码601992
上市年数11.17
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分4
财报平均分-5.2
最终参考1.24
估值pb.28
估值pe4.43
dcf1.51
VP.4432
R0.185
R1229修1.24
每股收益.28
成长评分12291
成长估值1229-.43
close_now2.8
pe_now10.7827
pb_now.6184
wr612.5
wr1053.3333
ratio_day_fail0%
ratio_success0%
r_count_success0
r_count_fail0
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 2:32:56
评语

经营性利润占60.79

现金流和利润差很多,难道赚的是假钱?

净资产收益率5.4不怎么样哦!

毛利率26.95还可以哟!

净利率5.15太低了,周转如果不快就完了!

三费占比15.97

货卖的很慢需要641.88天,是产品生产周期太长?还是存货滞销了?

存货占总资产42.83钱都被存货占用了!

账期短75.83天能把钱收回来

一个经营周期大概需要526.31天,效率低下啊!钱是被谁占用了吗?(白酒、房地产除外)

轻资产企业,固定类资产仅有17.75

负债率70.47超过一半啦

负债基本借的多,有息负债占总负债57.74

占用上游资金200.75天,供应商不着急用钱?

有息负债中27.95是长期借款

少数股东拿了净利润的23.85

自选False

财报原始数据

601992
金隅集团
北京金隅集团股份有限公司
建材
水泥
1067777
20110301
L
46447
北京
北京市
www.bbmg.com.cn/listco
H
sql
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2017-12-31
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a_5
601992
2016-12-31
28010211147.53
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a_6
601992
2015-12-31
18369880691.1
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28829779762.7
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a_7
601992
2014-12-31
10980171602.68
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1875875683.44
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a_8
601992
2013-12-31
8595510330.36
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506106696.49
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6305600000
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42162045216
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4500000000
17551844359.27
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15580306880
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5866492301.67
a_9
601992
2012-12-31
5906094546.45
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430004020.52
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153463306.96
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4148676380.69
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a_10
601992
2011-12-31
7918479363.14
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