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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

-

计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-

阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长(%)
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长(%)
-
选我
8年增长(%)
-
选我
10年增长(%)
-
选我
上市以来增长(%)
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算,我也不拦你,你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧,如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值,他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值,要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股,最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右,正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业,说十年后企业是什么样子,其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守,30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF(除非使用年份少)

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以,但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观,我们锁死了上限(上限3%)
  2. 默认是0,我们也建议使用0,哪有什么永远?都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利,其它值填零,只填基数。然后看未来值,要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的,只填期数和折现率,其它填零然后看现值,要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长,才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-

永续价值

-

估值

-

证券代码601888
上市年数12.54
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分82
财报平均分83.2
最终参考85.97
估值pb5.23
估值pe17.92
dcf84.92
VP.4724
R0.0565
R1229修69.16
每股收益4.8
成长评分12293
成长估值122985.97
close_now181.99
pe_now123.8045
pb_now33.9819
wr626.2987
wr1026.2987
ratio_day_fail0%
ratio_success100%
r_count_success3
r_count_fail0
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 0:55:11
评语

经营性利润占100.01

现金流和利润匹配不上,钱是没收回来还是拿去进货了?

净资产收益率21.17,历害!

毛利率高达41.46

净利率8.37有点低,企业靠走量?

期间费用28.07有点多,毛利润是不是都被三费给吃了?

正常走货速度,60.75天能卖完

账期超短,只要7.48天钱就收回来了

资金流转很快,仅需43.93天就能循环一次

轻资产企业,固定类资产仅有10.3

销售费用24.68,收入是推广驱动的?

短期没有还款压力

少数股东拿了净利润的21.36

自选False

财报原始数据

601888
中国中免
中国旅游集团中免股份有限公司
商贸零售
贸易
195247.5
20091015
L
14720
北京
北京市
www.ctgdutyfree.com.cn
H
sql
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2016-12-31
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601888
2015-12-31
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a_7
601888
2014-12-31
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a_8
601888
2013-12-31
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a_9
601888
2012-12-31
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a_10
601888
2011-12-31
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a_11
601888
2010-12-31
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