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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

-

计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-

阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长(%)
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长(%)
-
选我
8年增长(%)
-
选我
10年增长(%)
-
选我
上市以来增长(%)
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算,我也不拦你,你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧,如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值,他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值,要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股,最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右,正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业,说十年后企业是什么样子,其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守,30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF(除非使用年份少)

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以,但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观,我们锁死了上限(上限3%)
  2. 默认是0,我们也建议使用0,哪有什么永远?都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利,其它值填零,只填基数。然后看未来值,要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的,只填期数和折现率,其它填零然后看现值,要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长,才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-

永续价值

-

估值

-

证券代码600115
上市年数24.5
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分-48
财报平均分1.7
最终参考-10.31
估值pb-3.79
估值pe2.19
dcf-25.93
VP-2.1853
R0.182
R1229修-10.31
每股收益-4.72
成长评分12291
成长估值1229-12.68
close_now4.72
pe_now-1
pb_now1.3706
wr629.1667
wr1045.1613
ratio_day_fail0%
ratio_success0%
r_count_success0
r_count_fail0
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 2:59:37
评语

主营干赔了,利润来自非经营性收益

现金流优秀,超过了净利润

ROE仅有4.96,回报率很低啊

毛利率10.9有点低

净利率2.56太低了,周转如果不快就完了!

三项费用占比13.33

卖货很快不愁销路,7.37天内就能把货走完

账期超短,只要5.65天钱就收回来了

资金周转很快,能占用他人资金来运营

重资产企业,固定类资产占比85.41

负债率74.93超过一半啦

欠钱也是一种能力,其它类负债占比56.87

能占用供应商资金65.5天!

流动资产小于有息付债,短期还款压力很大

毛估借款利率11.69,利息贼高

有息负债中16.8是长期借款

自选False

财报原始数据

600115
中国东航
中国东方航空股份有限公司
交通运输
航空
1887444
19971105
L
80321
上海
上海市
www.ceair.com
H
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