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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

-

计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-

阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长(%)
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长(%)
-
选我
8年增长(%)
-
选我
10年增长(%)
-
选我
上市以来增长(%)
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算,我也不拦你,你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧,如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值,他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值,要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股,最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右,正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业,说十年后企业是什么样子,其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守,30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF(除非使用年份少)

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以,但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观,我们锁死了上限(上限3%)
  2. 默认是0,我们也建议使用0,哪有什么永远?都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利,其它值填零,只填基数。然后看未来值,要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的,只填期数和折现率,其它填零然后看现值,要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长,才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-

永续价值

-

估值

-

证券代码000638
上市年数25.44
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分21
财报平均分-7.4
最终参考0
估值pb.01
估值pe46.97
dcf0
VP.0008
R0.1565
R1229修0
每股收益0
成长评分12292
成长估值1229-.16
close_now4.8
pe_now176.1828
pb_now9.8529
wr667.3267
wr1075.5556
ratio_day_fail0%
ratio_success0%
r_count_success0
r_count_fail0
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 2:59:28
评语

经营利润是负的,净利润也是负的

净利润负的,和现金流对比没意义

ROE-74.29负的还谈啥回报率?要啥自行车?

毛利率高达45.33

-121.94沙雕一样的净利率!

期间费用53.24有点多,毛利润是不是都被三费给吃了?

货卖的很慢需要1192.02天,是产品生产周期太长?还是存货滞销了?

要账速度也忒慢了吧?需197.01天,不会被赖账吧?

应收款 票据占营收64.21,赊销出去那么多?还是钱被客户占用了?

一个经营周期大概需要1461.1天,效率低下啊!钱是被谁占用了吗?(白酒、房地产除外)

轻资产企业,固定类资产仅有0.56

其它类资产占24.71核查资产结构

负债率73.94超过一半啦

欠钱也是一种能力,其它类负债占比63.23

短期没有还款压力

注意!无形资产占总资产10.17

注意!商誉占总资产11.2

自选False

财报原始数据

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*ST万方
万方城镇投资发展股份有限公司
信息技术
其他软件服务
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