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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

-

计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-

阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长(%)
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长(%)
-
选我
8年增长(%)
-
选我
10年增长(%)
-
选我
上市以来增长(%)
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算,我也不拦你,你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧,如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值,他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值,要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股,最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右,正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业,说十年后企业是什么样子,其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守,30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF(除非使用年份少)

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以,但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观,我们锁死了上限(上限3%)
  2. 默认是0,我们也建议使用0,哪有什么永远?都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利,其它值填零,只填基数。然后看未来值,要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的,只填期数和折现率,其它填零然后看现值,要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长,才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-

永续价值

-

估值

-

证券代码000615
上市年数25.55
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分-53
财报平均分6.3
最终参考.98
估值pb.37
估值pe4.43
dcf1.37
VP.1237
R0.161
R1229修.98
每股收益.22
成长评分12291
成长估值1229.17
close_now7.91
pe_now-1
pb_now4.9374
wr680.8362
wr1083.4835
ratio_day_fail0%
ratio_success0%
r_count_success0
r_count_fail0
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 2:56:33
评语

经营性利润占64.55

现金流优秀,超过了净利润

ROE仅有4.29,回报率很低啊

毛利率29.5还可以哟!

净利率4.43太低了,周转如果不快就完了!

三费占比17.53

货卖的很慢需要1199.44天,是产品生产周期太长?还是存货滞销了?

存货占总资产62.07钱都被存货占用了!

账期超短,只要16.7天钱就收回来了

一个经营周期大概需要594.63天,效率低下啊!钱是被谁占用了吗?(白酒、房地产除外)

轻资产企业,固定类资产仅有6.47

负债率75.71超过一半啦

能欠货款664.2天,大多是预收款!凭本事欠的钱

短期没有还款压力

长期借款占有息负债的45.87,有能耐!

少数股东承担了-22.82的损失,是歪曲利润还是活雷锋?

自选False

财报原始数据

000615
奥园美谷
奥园美谷科技股份有限公司
医药生物
医疗服务
78118.03
19961016
L
3130
湖北
襄阳市
www.aoyuanbeauty.com
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