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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

-

计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-

阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长(%)
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长(%)
-
选我
8年增长(%)
-
选我
10年增长(%)
-
选我
上市以来增长(%)
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算,我也不拦你,你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧,如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值,他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值,要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股,最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右,正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业,说十年后企业是什么样子,其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守,30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF(除非使用年份少)

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以,但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观,我们锁死了上限(上限3%)
  2. 默认是0,我们也建议使用0,哪有什么永远?都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利,其它值填零,只填基数。然后看未来值,要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的,只填期数和折现率,其它填零然后看现值,要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长,才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-

永续价值

-

估值

-

证券代码000066
上市年数24.86
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分-18
财报平均分17.5
最终参考1.59
估值pb.39
估值pe4.31
dcf2.33
VP.1767
R0.159
R1229修1.59
每股收益.37
成长评分12292
成长估值1229.38
close_now9.02
pe_now59.9116
pb_now5.9073
wr645.2915
wr1058.9226
ratio_day_fail0%
ratio_success0%
r_count_success0
r_count_fail0
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 2:36:05
评语

经营性利润占净利润的8.59,去看看净利润咋来的吧

现金流和利润差很多,难道赚的是假钱?

净资产收益率15.88,秀儿!

毛利率21.93还可以哟!

净利率10.55还不错

三费占比16.69

正常走货速度,84.4天能卖完

回款要120.03天,这账期有点长哦!

一个经营周期需要104.77天,说明企业效率一般

生产性资产占25.8

负债率58.44超过一半啦

能占用供应商资金107.93天!

长期借款占有息负债的30.7,有能耐!

自选False

财报原始数据

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中国长城
中国长城科技集团股份有限公司
信息技术
PC、服务器及硬件
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广东
深圳市
www.greatwall.cn
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